Retirement spending naturally declines — does your plan reflect that?
Age
57
Location
Charlotte, NC
Income
$145k/yr
Saved
$850k
A 57-year-old Charlotte professional earns $145k and plans to retire at 62 with $850k saved. Early retirement means $92k per year — travel, dining, and active pursuits. By 65, spending drops to $70k as the pace slows. After 80, $52k covers a quieter home-based lifestyle. Phase-based spending dramatically changes the math vs. a flat withdrawal rate.
The earliest retirement age at which this plan does not run out of money is 58, after 1 more year of full-time work. Market risk matters more than that headline: the earliest age that succeeds in at least 80% of 500 Monte Carlo simulations is 60.
| Retire at | Full-time years left | Semi-retired years | Best Monte Carlo success |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 1 | 0 | 55% |
| 59 | 2 | 0 | 75% |
| 60 | 3 | 0 | 90% |
| 61 | 4 | 0 | 95% |
EARLIEST 80%+ PLAN: Retire at Age 60 Switch to semi-retirement at age 60 (after 3 high-salary years). Portfolio bridges to full retirement at 60.
Growth rate (7.0%) keeps compounding during spending — the extra buffer matters most against bad early-retirement market sequences.
Social Security: $40k/yr starting at age 67 is included. Healthcare: $16k/yr before Medicare at 65.
Across the simulated market histories (in future dollars, not adjusted for inflation), the median portfolio is $977k at 70, $1.14M at 80, $1.24M at 90. In a poor sequence of returns (10th percentile) it is $220k at 70, $220k at 80, $0k at 90.
This example uses illustrative figures and should not be treated as financial advice.