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Already Retired — Am I OK?

Retired at 58, $1.1M, worried about lasting to 95

Age

Location

Scottsdale, AZ

Income

Retired ($0)

Saved

$1.1M

A 58-year-old Scottsdale retiree stopped working last year. They have $1.1M, spend $78k per year, and lie awake wondering if the money will outlast them. Social Security kicks in at 67. With guardrails active and a planning horizon of 95, Monte Carlo reveals the true probability of surviving a long retirement.

What the projection shows

The earliest retirement age at which this plan does not run out of money is 58. Market risk matters more than that headline: the earliest age that succeeds in at least 80% of 500 Monte Carlo simulations is 58.

Retirement age options for Already Retired — Am I OK?
Retire at	Full-time years left	Semi-retired years	Best Monte Carlo success
58	0	0	98%

How the plan works (retiring at 58)

EARLIEST POSSIBLE: Retire at Age 58 Switch to semi-retirement at age 58 (after 0 high-salary years). Portfolio bridges to full retirement at 58.

Growth rate (4.0%) keeps compounding during spending — the extra buffer matters most against bad early-retirement market sequences.

Social Security: $42k/yr starting at age 67 is included. Healthcare: $18k/yr before Medicare at 65.

Portfolio range over time

Across the simulated market histories (in future dollars, not adjusted for inflation), the median portfolio is $569k at 70, $551k at 80, $439k at 90. In a poor sequence of returns (10th percentile) it is $125k at 70, $176k at 80, $102k at 90.

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This example uses illustrative figures and should not be treated as financial advice.