Can high pay overcome high costs?
Age
33
Location
San Jose, CA
Income
$260k/yr
Saved
$520k
A 33-year-old software engineer at a major tech company earns $260k in San Jose but pays California's steep income taxes and spends $88k per year on Bay Area living. They have $520k invested and are saving hard. The calculator reveals whether age 42–44 is a realistic FIRE target.
The earliest retirement age at which this plan does not run out of money is 43, after 10 more years of full-time work. Market risk matters more than that headline: the earliest age that succeeds in at least 80% of 500 Monte Carlo simulations is 44.
| Retire at | Full-time years left | Semi-retired years | Best Monte Carlo success |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 10 | 0 | 59% |
| 44 | 11 | 0 | 80% |
| 46 | 13 | 0 | 93% |
EARLIEST 80%+ PLAN: Retire at Age 44 Switch to semi-retirement at age 44 (after 11 high-salary years). Portfolio bridges to full retirement at 44.
Growth rate (4.0%) keeps compounding during spending — the extra buffer matters most against bad early-retirement market sequences.
Social Security: $45k/yr starting at age 67 is included. Healthcare: $18k/yr before Medicare at 65.
Across the simulated market histories (in future dollars, not adjusted for inflation), the median portfolio is $2.02M at 70, $2.09M at 80, $2.21M at 90. In a poor sequence of returns (10th percentile) it is $0k at 70, $0k at 80, $0k at 90.
This example uses illustrative figures and should not be treated as financial advice.