Two salary paths, four semi-retirement combos, every tax & spending lever active
Age
40
Location
Denver, CO
Income
$185k or $240k
Saved
$680k
A 40-year-old Denver engineer is weighing a $185k stable role vs. a $240k startup offer, and within each path can consult at $70k or $45k for 5 or 8 years. On top of the income matrix: HSA, Roth conversion ladder, three-phase retirement spending, guardrails, a future inheritance, and a home renovation. Every setting is on.
The earliest retirement age at which this plan does not run out of money is 49, after 4 more years of full-time work. Market risk matters more than that headline: the earliest age that succeeds in at least 80% of 500 Monte Carlo simulations is 52.
| Retire at | Full-time years left | Semi-retired years | Best Monte Carlo success |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 4 | 5 | 60% |
| 50 | 5 | 5 | 74% |
| 51 | 6 | 5 | 76% |
| 52 | 7 | 5 | 86% |
| 53 | 8 | 5 | 82% |
| 54 | 9 | 5 | 94% |
| 55 | 7 | 8 | 90% |
| 56 | 11 | 5 | 92% |
EARLIEST 80%+ PLAN: Retire at Age 52 Switch to semi-retirement at age 47 (after 7 high-salary years). Portfolio bridges to full retirement at 52.
Growth rate (7.0%) keeps compounding during spending — the extra buffer matters most against bad early-retirement market sequences.
Note: Includes $85k in planned life events.
Social Security: $40k/yr starting at age 67 is included. Healthcare: $16k/y
Across the simulated market histories (in future dollars, not adjusted for inflation), the median portfolio is $5.88M at 70, $9.03M at 80, $13.81M at 90. In a poor sequence of returns (10th percentile) it is $825k at 70, $264k at 80, $0k at 90.
This example uses illustrative figures and should not be treated as financial advice.