A planned off-ramp before full retirement
Age
35
Location
Denver, CO
Income
$150k → $38k
Saved
$350k
A 35-year-old Denver consultant earning $150k plans to shift to a relaxed $38k part-time role at 45 for a decade before retiring fully at 55. With $350k saved and a $52k lifestyle, this classic two-phase approach trades peak earning years for a decade of lower stress. Does the math work?
The earliest retirement age at which this plan does not run out of money is 51, after 6 more years of full-time work. Market risk matters more than that headline: the earliest age that succeeds in at least 80% of 500 Monte Carlo simulations is 53.
| Retire at | Full-time years left | Semi-retired years | Best Monte Carlo success |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 6 | 10 | 62% |
| 52 | 7 | 10 | 78% |
| 53 | 8 | 10 | 90% |
| 54 | 9 | 10 | 96% |
EARLIEST 80%+ PLAN: Retire at Age 53 Switch to semi-retirement at age 43 (after 8 high-salary years). Portfolio bridges to full retirement at 53.
Growth rate (4.0%) keeps compounding during spending — the extra buffer matters most against bad early-retirement market sequences.
Social Security: $32k/yr starting at age 67 is included. Healthcare: $14k/yr before Medicare at 65.
Across the simulated market histories (in future dollars, not adjusted for inflation), the median portfolio is $2.35M at 70, $3.03M at 80, $3.46M at 90. In a poor sequence of returns (10th percentile) it is $0k at 70, $0k at 80, $0k at 90.
This example uses illustrative figures and should not be treated as financial advice.