$950k in appreciated equity — great paper wealth, tricky withdrawals
Age
50
Location
Miami, FL
Income
$140k/yr
Saved
$1.26M
A 50-year-old Miami professional has $1.26M in assets, but $950k of it sits in highly appreciated taxable equity — representing investment property equity turned into brokerage holdings. A $400k cost basis means selling triggers a significant capital gains bill. How does this asset mix affect the retirement timeline?
The earliest retirement age at which this plan does not run out of money is 50. Market risk matters more than that headline: the earliest age that succeeds in at least 80% of 500 Monte Carlo simulations is 50.
| Retire at | Full-time years left | Semi-retired years | Best Monte Carlo success |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0 | 0 | 80% |
| 52 | 2 | 0 | 91% |
EARLIEST POSSIBLE: Retire at Age 50 Switch to semi-retirement at age 50 (after 0 high-salary years). Portfolio bridges to full retirement at 50.
Growth rate (4.0%) keeps compounding during spending — the extra buffer matters most against bad early-retirement market sequences.
Social Security: $38k/yr starting at age 67 is included. Healthcare: $14k/yr before Medicare at 65.
Across the simulated market histories (in future dollars, not adjusted for inflation), the median portfolio is $464k at 70, $400k at 80, $253k at 90. In a poor sequence of returns (10th percentile) it is $0k at 70, $0k at 80, $0k at 90.
This example uses illustrative figures and should not be treated as financial advice.