No 401k match, no pension — just your wits
Age
37
Location
Seattle, WA
Income
$112k/yr
Saved
$150k
A 37-year-old Seattle freelance developer earns $112k but has no employer 401k match, sporadic savings habits, and $150k invested — mostly in a Roth IRA. An HSA adds a small tax-efficient buffer. Seattle's cost of living devours $72k per year, leaving little margin. When can they realistically retire?
The earliest retirement age at which this plan does not run out of money is 54, after 17 more years of full-time work. Market risk matters more than that headline: the earliest age that succeeds in at least 80% of 500 Monte Carlo simulations is 59.
| Retire at | Full-time years left | Semi-retired years | Best Monte Carlo success |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 17 | 0 | 48% |
| 55 | 18 | 0 | 59% |
| 56 | 19 | 0 | 65% |
| 57 | 20 | 0 | 71% |
| 59 | 22 | 0 | 80% |
| 61 | 24 | 0 | 91% |
EARLIEST 80%+ PLAN: Retire at Age 59 Switch to semi-retirement at age 59 (after 22 high-salary years). Portfolio bridges to full retirement at 59.
Growth rate (4.0%) keeps compounding during spending — the extra buffer matters most against bad early-retirement market sequences.
Social Security: $26k/yr starting at age 67 is included. Healthcare: $14k/yr before Medicare at 65. HSA: $8k balance, t
Across the simulated market histories (in future dollars, not adjusted for inflation), the median portfolio is $1.05M at 70, $977k at 80, $797k at 90. In a poor sequence of returns (10th percentile) it is $83k at 70, $30k at 80, $0k at 90.
This example uses illustrative figures and should not be treated as financial advice.