Safe corporate role vs. high-paying startup — how much does it matter?
Age
36
Location
Austin, TX
Income
$150k vs $230k
Saved
$420k
A 36-year-old product manager in Austin has two paths: stay at their $150k corporate job (stable, great work-life balance) or take a $230k offer at a fast-growing startup. With $420k saved and $68k in annual expenses, the calculator runs both salary scenarios simultaneously and shows exactly how many years the gap is worth.
The earliest retirement age at which this plan does not run out of money is 43, after 7 more years of full-time work. Market risk matters more than that headline: the earliest age that succeeds in at least 80% of 500 Monte Carlo simulations is 44.
| Retire at | Full-time years left | Semi-retired years | Best Monte Carlo success |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 7 | 0 | 72% |
| 44 | 8 | 0 | 88% |
| 45 | 9 | 0 | 96% |
| 47 | 11 | 0 | 71% |
| 48 | 12 | 0 | 82% |
| 49 | 13 | 0 | 91% |
EARLIEST 80%+ PLAN: Retire at Age 44 Switch to semi-retirement at age 44 (after 8 high-salary years). Portfolio bridges to full retirement at 44.
Growth rate (4.0%) keeps compounding during spending — the extra buffer matters most against bad early-retirement market sequences.
Social Security: $34k/yr starting at age 67 is included. Healthcare: $14k/yr before Medicare at 65.
Across the simulated market histories (in future dollars, not adjusted for inflation), the median portfolio is $1.60M at 70, $1.88M at 80, $2.03M at 90. In a poor sequence of returns (10th percentile) it is $0k at 70, $0k at 80, $0k at 90.
This example uses illustrative figures and should not be treated as financial advice.