High income, late start — physician vs. time
Age
42
Location
Chicago, IL
Income
$380k/yr
Saved
$600k
A 42-year-old Chicago physician earns $380k but only started saving seriously after residency ended at 35. With $600k saved, high expenses of $130k, and a plan to practice part-time at $130k from ages 60–65, the question is whether peak earning years can compensate for a late start.
The earliest retirement age at which this plan does not run out of money is 52, after 5 more years of full-time work. Market risk matters more than that headline: the earliest age that succeeds in at least 80% of 500 Monte Carlo simulations is 54.
| Retire at | Full-time years left | Semi-retired years | Best Monte Carlo success |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 5 | 5 | 64% |
| 53 | 6 | 5 | 78% |
| 54 | 7 | 5 | 82% |
| 56 | 9 | 5 | 94% |
EARLIEST 80%+ PLAN: Retire at Age 54 Switch to semi-retirement at age 49 (after 7 high-salary years). Portfolio bridges to full retirement at 54.
Growth rate (4.0%) keeps compounding during spending — the extra buffer matters most against bad early-retirement market sequences.
Social Security: $46k/yr starting at age 70 is included. Healthcare: $18k/yr before Medicare at 65.
Across the simulated market histories (in future dollars, not adjusted for inflation), the median portfolio is $2.64M at 70, $2.50M at 80, $2.35M at 90. In a poor sequence of returns (10th percentile) it is $50k at 70, $0k at 80, $0k at 90.
This example uses illustrative figures and should not be treated as financial advice.