Two salary paths, spouse config, 529s, Roth ladder, phased spending, guardrails
Age
38
Location
Chicago, IL
Income
$220k–$290k + $165k
Saved
$1.05M combined
A 38-year-old Chicago couple compares a $220k vs $290k primary salary, each with a 5-year consulting bridge at $75k. The spouse earns $165k with a $75k semi-retirement option. Add 529 plans for two kids, a family HSA, Roth conversions, three-phase spending, guardrails, a future inheritance, and two upcoming expenses — every MFJ feature in one plan.
The earliest retirement age at which this plan does not run out of money is 43. Market risk matters more than that headline: the earliest age that succeeds in at least 80% of 500 Monte Carlo simulations is 43.
| Retire at | Full-time years left | Semi-retired years | Best Monte Carlo success |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0 | 5 | 92% |
| 44 | 1 | 5 | 99% |
| 45 | 2 | 5 | 100% |
| 46 | 3 | 5 | 100% |
| 47 | 4 | 5 | 100% |
| 48 | 5 | 5 | 100% |
| 49 | 6 | 5 | 100% |
| 50 | 7 | 5 | 100% |
You retire at Age 43, partner retires at Age 71.
Growth rate (7.0%) keeps compounding during spending — the extra buffer matters most against bad early-retirement market sequences.
Note: Includes $110k in planned life events.
Social Security: $44k/yr starting at age 67 is included. Healthcare: $24k/yr before Medicare at 65. Roth Ladder: converting $60k/yr in retirement. HSA: $22k balance, tax-f
Across the simulated market histories (in future dollars, not adjusted for inflation), the median portfolio is $6.97M at 70, $11.00M at 80, $18.70M at 90. In a poor sequence of returns (10th percentile) it is $1.76M at 70, $1.49M at 80, $1.29M at 90.
This example uses illustrative figures and should not be treated as financial advice.