A 60-year-old couple stress-testing their plan
Age
60
Location
Phoenix, AZ
Income
$190k combined
Saved
$1.3M combined
Married and both 60 in Phoenix, this couple earns $190k combined and has $1.3M saved. They plan to retire at 65, collecting $40k and $33k per year in Social Security. With only five years left, the question is whether a market downturn before or just after retirement could derail their comfortable $90k lifestyle.
The earliest retirement age at which this plan does not run out of money is 60. Market risk matters more than that headline: the earliest age that succeeds in at least 80% of 500 Monte Carlo simulations is 60.
| Retire at | Full-time years left | Semi-retired years | Best Monte Carlo success |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| 61 | 1 | 0 | 99% |
| 62 | 2 | 0 | 100% |
| 63 | 3 | 0 | 100% |
| 64 | 4 | 0 | 100% |
| 65 | 5 | 0 | 100% |
| 66 | 6 | 0 | 100% |
| 67 | 7 | 0 | 100% |
You retire at Age 60, partner retires at Age 63.
Growth rate (7.0%) keeps compounding during spending — the extra buffer matters most against bad early-retirement market sequences.
Social Security: $40k/yr starting at age 67 is included. Healthcare: $20k/yr before Medicare at 65.
Across the simulated market histories (in future dollars, not adjusted for inflation), the median portfolio is $1.76M at 70, $2.43M at 80, $3.18M at 90. In a poor sequence of returns (10th percentile) it is $874k at 70, $931k at 80, $697k at 90.
This example uses illustrative figures and should not be treated as financial advice.