Two kids, back-to-back tuition bills, and a 529 head start
Age
46
Location
New Jersey
Income
$340k combined
Saved
$920k + 529s
A dual-income NJ couple in their mid-40s earns $340k combined and has $920k saved, with two 529 accounts ($60k and $45k) earmarked for their kids. Emma starts college in 2 years, Jake in 5. The 529s cover roughly half the tab — the rest must come from savings during prime earning years. Do they still retire in their early 60s?
The earliest retirement age at which this plan does not run out of money is 47, after 1 more year of full-time work. Market risk matters more than that headline: the earliest age that succeeds in at least 80% of 500 Monte Carlo simulations is 48.
| Retire at | Full-time years left | Semi-retired years | Best Monte Carlo success |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0 | 0 | Runs out of money |
| 47 | 1 | 0 | 75% |
| 48 | 2 | 0 | 99% |
| 49 | 3 | 0 | 100% |
| 50 | 4 | 0 | 99% |
| 51 | 5 | 0 | 99% |
| 52 | 6 | 0 | 100% |
| 53 | 7 | 0 | 99% |
You retire at Age 48, partner retires at Age 61.
Growth rate (4.0%) keeps compounding during spending — the extra buffer matters most against bad early-retirement market sequences.
Social Security: $40k/yr starting at age 67 is included. Healthcare: $24k/yr before Medicare at 65.
Across the simulated market histories (in future dollars, not adjusted for inflation), the median portfolio is $1.77M at 70, $2.10M at 80, $2.38M at 90. In a poor sequence of returns (10th percentile) it is $557k at 70, $684k at 80, $572k at 90.
This example uses illustrative figures and should not be treated as financial advice.