Two incomes, no kids — can they retire at 50?
Age
38
Location
Austin, TX
Income
$380k combined
Saved
$980k combined
Both 38, both earning $185-195k, living in Austin with $980k combined across their portfolios. They spend $95k per year and each max their 401ks. Retiring at 50 means 12 more years of work. Between them, Social Security will eventually cover over $75k per year. Is 50 doable?
The earliest retirement age at which this plan does not run out of money is 39, after 1 more year of full-time work. Market risk matters more than that headline: the earliest age that succeeds in at least 80% of 500 Monte Carlo simulations is 40.
| Retire at | Full-time years left | Semi-retired years | Best Monte Carlo success |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0 | 0 | Runs out of money |
| 39 | 1 | 0 | 73% |
| 40 | 2 | 0 | 97% |
| 41 | 3 | 0 | 100% |
| 42 | 4 | 0 | 99% |
| 43 | 5 | 0 | 100% |
| 44 | 6 | 0 | 99% |
| 45 | 7 | 0 | 100% |
You retire at Age 40, partner retires at Age 62.
Growth rate (7.0%) keeps compounding during spending — the extra buffer matters most against bad early-retirement market sequences.
Social Security: $40k/yr starting at age 65 is included. Healthcare: $20k/yr before Medicare at 65.
Across the simulated market histories (in future dollars, not adjusted for inflation), the median portfolio is $8.81M at 70, $12.62M at 80, $16.69M at 90. In a poor sequence of returns (10th percentile) it is $2.56M at 70, $2.71M at 80, $2.15M at 90.
This example uses illustrative figures and should not be treated as financial advice.